Romney Has the Negative Momentum He Fought So Hard to Avoid
Fridays's (November 2nd) polls tell a story Romney's campaign may dread. He's not only behind in battleground states, the popular vote seemed to be trending Obama too. Nate Silver prepared a graphic that shows Obama ahead in the national polls by +1.1, continuing a trend that started roughly after Sandy (I'm not saying there's causation there).
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| Source: FiveThirtyEight |
I encourage you to go to Silver's post, in which he argues that Romney is toast unless state polls are wrong. And to prove his point, Silver prepared another table that Romney won't like, not even a little bit. It shows the latest battleground state polling:
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| Source: FiveThirtyEight |
Yes, it's very blue. It doesn't include North Carolina, the only battleground state Romney seems to be holding onto with some degree of certainty. What the polling shows is that Obama is peeling away. Is there momentum? I have no idea. I'll try to guess that Silver would tell you –in his statistically cautious style– that there's not enough data to say that Obama has momentum, but the polls are certainly trending his way. Or something like that. Read him and you'll understand what I mean.
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